Transitions and Turbulence in World Affairs

Events on the world stage have raised significant concern over the last two years as tension and risky clashes have been numerous. One way to look at this situation is to consider it as the result of a series of peculiarities, such as the election of an atypical US President, the ongoing drama of a divorce in the European Union, the desperate attempt by a Syrian or Venezuelan leader to stay in power and its implications in terms of migration, or the cold bloodiness of a North Korean leader. Under this viewpoint, the above-mentioned conjunction of factors is unfortunate and destabilising for world affairs but unlikely to last in its present form. Hence, current turbulence will end, hopefully sooner than later and world politics will come back to a calmer state at some point.  

I have a different view on today’s tensions in world affairs. The sources of current turbulence, in my opinion, are structural and here to stay for several years. We are witnessing two key shifts, each of them generating tensions of its own. The first one is what international relations scholars call a power transition with China about to replace the USA as the leading power. Whereas one can argue about the timing of this change, there is now little doubt today that it will happen. Power transitions have never happened short of major turbulence and although one should not anticipate a third world war, tensions between the rising and the declining powers will continue, irrespective of the identities of their respective leaders. The declining power has to come to accept the end of its privileges, and at the same time continue to share responsibilities in collective mechanisms and action at the world level. The rising power has to get used to its new cloth and realise the world it will lead does not look like the one that preceded the Opium Wars in the 19th century. Adaptation by China and the USA to their new roles will result in a series of painful direct encounters -such as the ongoing ones in trade matters-, as well as more indirect ones in Asia and the Pacific, Central Asia or Africa. 

The second structural source of turbulence comes from a shift in the dominant logic of international relations. We are moving from the logic of the chessboard to the logic of the web -to borrow Anne-Marie Slaughter’s words in her latest book (The Chessboard and the Web 2017)-, or to rephrase it, from a world of power politics to a world of network politics. The issue in this case is that the two worlds work very differently. In a world of networks, individuals, groups, businesses and institutions are not simply state subjects but actors in their own right. Connections, rather than relative size, are the key structural elements and the source of problems, threats and/or solutions. Power is not absent in a world of networks but it comes from the ability to foster relationships and information, and to cultivate trust and credibility. The world of networks is therefore more “democratic” as it tends to level the playing field among states and between states and non-state actors. But “democratic” transitions also tend to be eras of turbulence and there is little reasons to expect this one will be a smooth one. The privileged position of states as well as leading international organisations will have to give way to more horizontal global governance, possibly requiring changes in constitutional competencies at the national level legally empowering sub-state entities such as cities. New actors, in particular private firms or organisations, will have to deeply adjust their strategy to a global responsibility role, an adjustment that is likely to cause unrest among their shareholders. 

It is too soon to tell how long the dual transition on the chessboard and, from the chessboard to the web will take but it will surely be with us for many years. We should therefore prepare for a long period of turbulence and  adapt our actions to make sure it leads us to a better and safer world. 

This article is part of my series "The Director's words" which features in our Executive Education newsletters. Follow us on LinkedIn>