Rivemont Crypto Fund - Weekly Update – Week 65
Rivemont is the portfolio manager responsible for the investment decisions of the Rivemont Crypto Fund.
After the encouraging action of February on the cryptocurrency market, it was a real consolidation and accumulation period that was observed since our last update. While the price is still north of the 30-day moving average and gradually forms an increasingly important support for the future, this action is welcomed positively, being unquestionably considered bullish by most analysts.
A positive new mark has been achieved technically this week, with the 50-day moving average crossing the 100-day. Although this cross rarely represents a catalyst for tangible action, it nevertheless shows an increasingly clear trend reversal for the first quarter of 2019.
If a bitcoin ETF is still waiting for the SEC's approval in the US, such a product was launched on the London Stock Exchange this week. Let's bet that the SEC will carefully observe the results of this experiment from across the Atlantic.
The saga surrounding the closing of the Canadian QuadrigaCX exchange with nearly $ 140 million in capital is far from over. The widow of the company’s founder told the court that his personal funds had been used in the operations of the exchange. Needless to say, this raises many questions about the custody of investor funds in their operations.
Surprising news came from the CBOE Futures Exchange yesterday. First to have launched futures contracts based on the price of bitcoin, the exchange announced that it’d put a brake on its offer. Indeed, no new contract will be offered during the month of March, meaning that only active contracts, expiring at the latest in June, can still be traded. “CFE is assessing its approach with respect to how it plans to continue to offer digital asset derivatives for trading. While it considers its next steps, CFE does not currently intend to list additional XBT futures contracts for trading.” Can be read.
Some believe that the popularity of futures contracts offered on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, generating a much larger volume than the ones on CBOE, would be behind this decision. Others believe that the exchange could prepare a transition from cash-settled futures to ultimately bitcoin-settled contracts, which would represent a positive development for the cryptocurrency industry. This is a subject that we will follow with great attention.
The simplest indicators are also often the most effective. As it was the case ten days ago, it is undeniably the 30-day moving average that continues to attract attention. Indeed, this last one forms a nice ascending slope respected with great precision by the price since it was crossed on February 8th. The optimistic scenario would allow consolidation to continue while respecting this support in anticipation of a next test of resistance at the $ 4,200 - $ 4,300 price range.
The rather positive market picture led us to slightly increase our exposure, which is currently at 62.5%. The capital would soon be fully deployed if the resistance of which we have just made mention was to be broken.
Rivemont Investments, manager of the Rivemont Crypto Fund.
The presented information is as of March 15th, 2019, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.