The Race to Zero Emission Vehicles is On

This week the United Kingdom set a new bar in the global race to zero emission vehicles. Within a decade, there will be no more sales of petrol and diesel cars. Put positively this signals a much-needed upgrade and a shift to a future of 100% sales of zero emission vehicles (ZEV).  

This decision sends a clear message about direction of travel and the need to accelerate the ZEV transition. Decarbonizing transportation as soon as possible will be critical in the collective effort to halve greenhouse gas emissions this decade and reach net zero emissions in the next 30 years, or earlier.  

What levers will help accelerate this transition?

One visible level or change is citizen demand for clean air. That is why cities have been early adopters of measures to ban polluting cars and invest in greener and healthier streets. Second, technologies are getting cheaper and better, for example, battery costs went down nearly 90% in 10 years. Third, the demand for ZEV continues to grow. The initiative EV100 - aiming to electrify fleets by 2030 starting now-- represents over 4 million vehicles. The demand for zero-emission urban freight is growing. Amazon, for example, put the world’s largest order for 100,000 electric delivery vans. Fourth, vehicle manufacturers are shifting toward zero-emission vehicle manufacturing. Fifth, getting the right finance mechanisms investor engagement will play a transformative role.  

Several governments have put in place calendars to phase out petrol and diesel cars nationwide. For example, Sweden, Denmark and The Netherlands will do so by 2030, Norway by 2025. Canada and France, for example, will do so by 2040. The UK 2030 commitment is relevant because it is the first bold signal of this kind by a G7 industrialized economy.

States and provinces are also moving forward. This year the Government of California committed to 100% sales of ZEVs by 2035. Inspired by this decision, the Government of Quebec made a similar announcement this November. New states and provinces in North America could follow suit. 

The bottom line: the market alone will not deliver the transformation. Public policies will be needed. And the good news is that we have learned what policies work to accelerate the ZEV transition - from ZEV mandates to measures to secure that smart infrastructure is deployed. Phasing out the internal combustion engine is one of them.  Fiscal incentives will also play a key role in the next years prior to achieving price parity between ICE and ZEV technologies. Price parity is expected to happen in the next five years. 

Considering that from that point onwards, ZEVs become cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, cleaner, healthier and “cooler”, it is worth raising the question of why mainstream forecasters expect combustion technologies to dominate sales in the next 20 and 30 years. 

The ZEV transition accelerates climate ambition

Cooperation and coalitions have played positive roles in transforming society. That is why it is important to understand this announcement not only as a “transportation policy” but as an invitation to leaders around the world to accelerate climate commitments in the run up to COP26. 

Here are opportunities for countries to show climate leadership by supporting the ZEV transition.  

• First, in a few weeks when the UK holds the ZEV Transition Council in the run up to COP26 to bring together key automotive manufacturing countries. This is an unprecedented opportunity to explore how countries can jointly accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles. 
• Second, the “Race to Zero”, a global campaign, is ready to engage non-state actors, including vehicle manufacturers, to make public commitments that are consistent with the Paris Agreement -- and to publish the plan to achieve this. 
• Third, countries are expected to publish new commitments to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement -- or “Nationally determined contributions, or NDCs. Many of these countries can achieve this by integrating ambitious ZEV policies -- for example, commitments to shift to zero emission-cars, vans, buses, freight, and railroads. 

The Climate Ambition Summit will happen next month to coincide with the 5-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement. This summit offers a meaningful opportunity for the public and private sector to show global climate leadership by committing to decarbonize land transportation. It is a concrete way to connect the global and the local, to connect the private and the public spheres and specially to remind society that climate action seeks to benefit the climate and especially people -- especially those most vulnerable to pollution and climate impacts.