How To Use Hype Cycle for Tech Investment, Innovation and Your Life?
You might know about Hype Cycle - one of the leading framework on measuring technology maturity and guide for tech adoption in your context. You might be amazed by how it can applied in life. This post is just personal opinion and use public sources of Gartner Hype Cycle.
What is Hype Cycle?
The Hype Cycle is Gartner's framework representing the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. It provides a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity emerging technologies through five phases of a technology's life cycle.
- Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
- Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.
- Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
- Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
- Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
How Hype Cycle Helps?
- Separate hype from the real drivers of a technology's commercial promise
- Reduce the risk of your technology investment decisions
- Compare your understanding of a technology's business value with the objectivity of experienced IT analysts.
Who Should Use Hype Cycle and How?
Technology leaders both business leaders and CIOs, IT Leaders use Hype Cycles to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.
- Should you make an early move? If you're willing to combine risk taking with an understanding that risky investments don't always pay off, you could reap the rewards of early adoption.
- Is a moderate approach appropriate? Executives who are more moderate understand the argument for an early investment but will also insist on a sound cost/benefit analysis when new ways of doing things are not yet fully proven.
- Should you wait for further maturation? If there are too many unanswered questions around the commercial viability of an emerging technology, it may be better to wait until others have been able to deliver tangible value.
You can read an example of how to use Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2016 to Gain Competitive Advantage.
How About Life?
I was amazed by how Vietnamese Executives (CEOs, CIOs and IT leaders) shared their interpretation of Hype Cycle and think that it actually can be applied for your daily life.
Marriage Hype Cycle
Recall your journey in marriage, can you relate? Typical the trigger is the first day you meet, then your dates, caring and feelings for each other drive your expectations higher and higher, then a wedding or moving in together or special milestones are peaks of inflated expectations. Many people wonder the night before the wedding: "Am I marrying the right person?" Your first few months living together will bring a lot of conflicts, frustration, disappointment and concerns. Not many marriage 'survive" till the end and those "6 months", "2 years", "after first child", 7 or 10 years, etc. are trough. If you manage to get through, things will improve gradually and go to "plateau of productivity". If you get there, you don't bother when your spouse doesn't behave the way you expected. He got drunk, or not organized, play games all day? You accept him as he is.
My favorite formula is: EXPECTATION - OBSERVATION = FRUSTRATION.
Career or Employment Hype Cycle
Remember the day you apply, then search for job description, write your cover letter, read glassdoor for interview questions, prepare the best, then get the offer, do almost everything to prove yourself at work? And when the trough starts? You work 10-12 hours per day, overtime during the weekend and results are not expected. Bosses don't recognize for what you do. Your customers are demanding. Your partners or colleagues don't give you enough resources or supported need? You wonder "Am I the right fit for the job?" Other hypes happen again after 2-3 years, and again after 5-7 years, as your expectations should change: a promotion, senior role, leadership or manager, etc. That's why, those are also often the milestones for people when they quit.
Employers do need to take note of this and manage their employeers' hype cycle, and they can have their own on talent management.
Relationship Hype Cycle (Friends, Colleagues, etc.)
My reflection shows that it's often our expectations about others upset us. Challenges in life and relationships. For most of us, not every single we meet "survive" till the end of "friendship life cycle". Trust is one of biggest drivers in this life cycle.
Build your own Hype Cycle and get a clear understanding of your drivers for it. Feel free to share your thoughts in comment and let's discuss if you have any questions!
PS: Will come back soon with similar applications of Magic Quadrant!