European airlines, like their global counterparts, are consumed by the struggle against COVID-19. Finding ways to effectively reduce costs while adjusting to new health screening and cleaning requirements is an obvious and significant challenge that requires attention. Each airline is working, to varying degrees, to secure needed financial support from financial institutions and governments to help offset the catastrophic financial consequences of travel demand that is between 40-90% lower than expected just 6 month ago. Airline leaders have also been tasked with winning back the trust of travellers and employees who need to feel safe, being at airports and in the air. It is a critical turning point but also an opportunity…
With so much on their plates, airline executives must also address the environmental impacts of travel. The industry's “next normal” is being shaped by the COVID-19 crisis but sustainability increasingly becomes a subject close to many people’s hearts. It is not just the UN, governments, enterprises and investors who are coming together to drive change (EU’s €750B Green deal, ethical ESG investments or regulatory legislation) but also travellers are expressing their views clearly that airlines should be reducing their carbon footprint.
While a great deal of uncertainty remains in the travel market, airline executives are confident that demand will eventually grow back to previous levels. The challenge for airlines leaders, however, is predicting the nature, shape, and timing associated with the demand recovery. Operational plans, all of which have significant implications on CO2 emission, can be made better when more precise estimates can be made about which travellers, from (and to) which locations, will want to travel.
Fortunately, technology can help airlines achieve both their short and long-term environmental objectives. Arvind Krishna, IBM’s CEO recently stated, “I’m predicting today that every company will become an AI company—not because they can, but because they must.” Krishna added “Companies are fast adopting artificial intelligence and hybrid cloud-based IT architectures. That is both enabling them to build agility and resiliency into their networks now, and preparing them to embrace emerging technologies like 5G and edge computing.”
Decisions, all with potentially significant CO2 implications, take place across the entire network of large carriers and could be improved by the application of AI-driven demand forecasts. By analysing the largest possible volumes and types of data from the broadest of data sources, to uncover emerging patterns e.g. based on web traffic, industry organisations (IATA, ACI, WTTC...), press & publications.
An AI powered insight engine using Natural Language Processing can extract insights from structured and unstructured data using AI powered queries, based on such information as macroeconomic impacts, customer sentiment & pulse, regional variations, environmental guidance etc.
AI & Machine learning models (tool-based or custom) could generate demand forecasts, modulating them with influencers like COVID-19 risk index, alternative modes of transport, travel destination restrictions etc. Decision optimisation tools could then be used to optimise network and schedule decisions.
But regardless of where demand returns first, carriers could apply quantum computing in the future to try to reduce the carbon that is produced in daily operations. By developing better flight plans, more efficient ground handling operations, better block-time plans, more robust fuel plans, and carbon optimized routes; carriers can squeeze out not just financial performance improvements, but also carbon emissions reductions. There are, of course, dozens of systems and solutions in place to optimize each aspect of this complex set of operational challenges, but limits on classical computing solutions make it impossible to simultaneously run an optimization across multiple operational silos.
In the longer term, air travel will likely turn to physical innovations to deliver more significant environmental improvements. Although the distant future is difficult to predict, it seems likely that such improvements will grow from changes to combustion processes, and the further development and expansion of hybrid-electric and pure-electric aircraft. These innovations could eventually turn air travel into the greenest segment in the travel industry. The challenge, of course, is to make progress on other more proven CO2 reduction initiatives while the industry - and the world - waits for cleaner aircraft propulsion solutions.
Our industry, which I have worked in for more than 20 years, has had to deal with many ups and downs, however, it will emerge stronger, through technological innovations, enhanced and optimised operations and in what will be a much greener, cleaner and profitable, more sustainable way. Of critical importance are the technological solutions that enable speed, flexibility, insight, and innovation, coupled with new ways of working and effective partnerships in the “new normal”.
Alisdair Wright
