The age of robots is coming - but what kind, and exactly when?

Two recent articles about robots have me thinking about where we are headed with robot technology. The first (https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/industrial-robots/robotic-dreams-robotic-realities) chronicles how difficult it has been to launch and maintain a profitable robotics company. Several such promising companies have recently closed their doors, even though the standard reporting says we are moving into an era where robotic companions, as well as robots serving as meaningful assistants, will revolutionize the way we take care of others, especially our aging and isolated populations. In this article much of the blame is being leveled on inflated expectations that cannot be realized in the current day-to-day use of these new robotic entities. Our expectations for human assistants or companions are primarily based on our experience with other humans, which robots are nowhere near fulfilling … yet.  In the article Giulio Sandini, from the Italian Institute of Technology, is quoted as saying the problem of companies not being able to meet expectations happens “when one sells (or buys) intentions as results.” We are in the age of intentions for this tech. We see the future where these robotic entities will be part and parcel of everyday existence. Our ability to forecast the future has been honed to a fine art by what we have seen from things like mobile phones and home computers. Because of this, we can foresee these robots as being highly sophisticated and super useful, and they will be. But there is a long, slow road of development and innovative advances to travel before we are at that point. Challenges like the ANA Avatar XPRIZE (avatar.xprize.org) (disclaimer – an XPRIZE I am currently advising on) hope to speed up the travel along this road to the future, but good things simply take time to realize their potential. It does not happen overnight. 

 The second article ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/noelsharkey/2018/11/17/mama-mia-its-sophia-a-show-robot-or-dangerous-platform-to-mislead) is about what the author, Noel Sharkey, calls “show robots”. Show robots are the pinnacle of demonstration robots, often programmed for maximum effect, and presented through adroitly edited video footage of the best takes, or brought onto stage to interact in carefully scripted ways. Now show robots are also about selling intentions, much of which need years to actually realize. They are glimpses of what might be possible. We are firmly in the age of such demonstration systems, not only in robotics, but also in VR, AI and multiple other technology domains. The real question is how much do these intention-based demos help or hurt the public understanding of the technology? Do they inspire or set us up for ultimate disappointment when we take ours out of the shiny and expensive box and find it doesn’t really satisfy as much as the demo did. 

 The ultimate lesson is that we need to set better expectations as we invent this amazing (and I am sure it will be amazing) future with sophisticated robots. It does not benefit anyone to say we are further along than we should be, despite good intentions. Managing expectations honestly so as not to invite disappointment is key here. 

This future is important enough to take the proper time to discover new techniques, to merge many disparate technologies, to be honest about advances and challenges. Most important is to have many more hearts and minds laboring diligently through the hard work of trials and tests, failures and successes to reach that amazing future. Here’s to those in the trenches. Don’t let the demos get in the way of what you are building for the generations to come.

#robots #future #XPRIZE #AnaAvatarXPRIZE