Mara Rudman’s Post

Transcript

Permanent ceasefire with us tonight. Mara Rudman, she's a former senior US National Security official. You're very welcome to the program. I was just signalling there that really. I feel tonight that we're at a pivotal moment. There is so much that can unfold from this position, but the crucial first step is getting this ceasefire across the line. Yes, I agree it is. I I would say it's an inflection point. There are a lot of different moving pieces and getting a decent ceasefire agreement that brings the the hostage, brings an important number of hostages home. What's been reported is 33 or in the the current first group and to build from there and have a pause at least in the fighting so that more and more humanitarian aid can get in as well. And if it were rejected? I want to focus on what could be achieved if it was accepted. It's clearly with Hamas right now to make the determination. I sadly have not seen them put the welfare of human beings, whether Palestinians or Israelis, first and foremost, in their calculations. So that concerns me. But they are clearly under a great deal of pressure from the international community, as is Israel to. Get to get agreement to a ceasefire. Clearly, politically in Washington, there is real focus on this right now, not least because of the protest movement across the university campuses, which is growing. We know that President Biden has spoken to the Qatari leader, to the Egyptian President. He has in recent days spoken to the Israeli Prime Minister as well. How deeply involved do you think they are in this, given the threat that it now poses to his reelection chances? So I reject the basic premise of your question, which is to suggest that President Biden's positions are affected by domestic politics. President Biden, I believe, has from the beginning of this crisis, from October 7th onwards, done what he thinks is in the best interest of the United States, the nation, to serve the national security interest, and has worked closely with allies and partners throughout the world as well. As in the Middle East, Israel and its Arab neighbors, to try to reach points of resolution on this ad allow Israel to defend itself. I would separate that entirely from what is happening on university campuses in the United States. That is not affecting how President Biden is proceeding, OK. They've been pretty bullish, though, about the talks in Riyadh yesterday and this normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. What is Saudi Arabia's motivation in pushing that forward quickly? Because we're led to believe the Crown Prince would like it to be done within weeks. Sure. Well, for the Saudis, there's an interest in stronger regional security arrangements to protect against what they see as a very real threat from Iran. And so some of these security guarantees are intended to send part of a message to Iran about where and how key countries in the region, including Israel, are united. But the Saudis and the Crown Prince understand that they need from Israel. Thought and a way to move forward, to go towards a two state solution, A state for Palestinians and a state for Israelis. And that is a key component as well, of being able to move forward to a more stable and secure region. And so for the United States, for the Saudis, for other countries in the region. That's why they see a number of these pieces as interlinked. But there would be of course an indefinite delay if Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed ahead with his plans in Rafa. Today he sounded equally bullish that whether there's a ceasefire or not, he's gonna go ahead and deal with those final remnants of Hamas that he believes are hiding within Rafa. What will be Secretary Blinken's position on that tonight? I believe that what Secretary Blinken will do is to continue to repeat the message that Prime Minister Netanyahu has certainly heard from the President of the United States, from various senior U.S. officials as well as senior leaders from across the world, that Israel has the right to defend itself. But that a ground assault in Rafa is not wise at the current point is not likely to achieve what he says or his objectives. And for Prime Minister Netanyahu, he has a decision to make of whether he's really looking out for the best. Interest of his citizens of the people of Israel. Or if he's looking to simply maintain his hold on the premiership, which seems to be dependent right now on a couple of very far right extremists who are in the minority in Israel, writ large in pushing both for ground invasion of Rafa and not putting the well-being of the hostages and the return of hostages as their top priority. So many different moving parts at the moment, Myra and one of the things that. Is hanging over it and is being reported more widely now is the threat of the ICC issuing these arrest warrants. The three people that would be in the frame, we're told the Jerusalem Post reporting it tonight, would be Prime Minister Netanyahu, his Defense Secretary and the chief of the IDF if they were delivered. And and and that's not a given because the three judge panel, as I understand it, has to sign off on it. But if they were issued, how much further would that complicate things? For you. Well, I think it would be extraordinary and I and it's my belief that the ICC would be well beyond their remit in taking such a move. And it it evidence is some of the concerns, frankly that countries like the United States had about the ICC for for some years now. It's taking, I would say an arbitrary political move. I would note though that the International Court of Justice that's affiliated with the UN just today refused to bid. To halt German Germany's arm sales arms supplies to Israel so, so I would caution I guess any kind of firm conclusions on what the courts would do and just to find international courts and just to final one clearly there has been an improvement somewhat in in the aid situation but but I mean the complaint has been from from neighbours from regional neighbours that there is so much more Israel could do to get aid into. Gaza and that that again was made forcibly. That point was made forcibly by King Abdullah today in Jordan. And I believe was echoed by Secretary Blinken in terms of support for all Jordan is doing a laying out of what the United States is doing. I will say it is extraordinarily difficult when there's not a war going on to move goods in and out of Gaza. One of my former government jobs was was working closely on that with both Israelis and Palestinians. So I know how difficult it is, but it still is a key responsibility, obligation and the right thing to do. For Israel and for Israel needs to maximize all the the humanitarian aid that they can get into Gaza. My Rodman very grateful for your time this evening. Thank you very much.