Leen Remmelzwaal

PhD Candidate (UCT)

6d · Edited

The number of "daily new cases" in South Africa is strongly correlated with the number of "daily tests"! Diving a little deeper, the "daily new cases" seem to be, on average, 2-3% of the the number of "daily tests". What does this mean? If South Africa increases the number of daily tests, will we discover more "new cases"? Taking this a step further, could we predict the number of “new cases” if we know how many "daily tests" are conducted? And what does that say about the reliability of the data? Check out the data yourself: corona-stats.co.za #coronavirussouthafrica

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Simon B. Hurry

Hi Leen Remmelzwaal - well done on what you have put together here. We really need to re-examine how we are presenting data and choosing to tell the story. What would be an critical plot is to examine is what proportion of cases are requiring hospitalisation and what proportion of those need an ICU and what that trend is. After all, the only reason we "fattening" the curve is to prevent health services from collapsing. It would be great if you could add that?

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Hugo Vaughan

Do you have a sense of how this matches daily scans? Because only those with set clinical criteria are sent for tests, so this says that the criteria we have set to qualify for a test are able to correctly predict infection.

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