Kirsten Morel’s Post

Kirsten Morel

7mo

Here's a question...What is the strongest performing growth sector of Jersey's economy? Sadly, it's not finance, nor digital, nor any other productive economic sector. The strongest performing growth sector of Jersey's economy is... rental income of private households. Take a look at the chart of GVA by sector, below. I've not included every sector as it becomes messy but I've double-checked and no sector has grown over the past 15 years as strongly as rent (the purple line) has. This is not a chart describing a healthy economy. Finance has flat-lined. Rising interest rates will help inject more money into the sector but this is clearly out of our control. Digital (other business activities) was beginning to show gradual sustained growth until the pandemic hit. After rent, the next strongest growth sector is government (public administration), the light blue line. Construction has also grown ahead of others. This tells us a number of things. 1) We have not diversified Jersey's economy anywhere close to enough. Despite diversification being talked about for the past 20 yrs or so, no government has invested seriously in diversification. 2) There's a massive wealth transfer from those without property to those with property, which is also a wealth transfer from the younger generation to older generations. 3) Jersey is losing its entrepreneurial culture. Rent is very far from entrepreneurial. 4) Jersey's economy is not in a healthy place. We need to invest heavily in diversification, creativity & innovation. It is no longer sufficient to play a little around the edges and hope that things work out. We must help islanders start new businesses by enabling them to access new markets, removing barriers to trade, reducing regulation on small businesses, encouraging entrepreneurship by providing low-rent premises in an incubator style that will not bankrupt someone should their business fail. 5) Jersey needs to become a trading island again. 6) We need to do more to attract high-value, low-footprint businesses. 7) We need to make Jersey's name synonymous with high quality products and services and sustainability. By marketing the island in this way, we can ensure our products and services always attract a premium. 8) We need to develop the skills of all islanders. Despite nice things being said, government has never sufficiently invested in skills. 9) Jersey will only achieve key policies such as net zero carbon emissions and sustainable transport with the success of the private sector in these areas. Govt must see the private sector as its key partner for the "green economic revolution". 10) Agriculture needs investment. The island must pay for the public goods it receives from agriculture and govt must support the island's farms by doing all it can to encourage the buying of local produce. 11) Government must see itself as the island's biggest customer and should ensure that procurement is Jersey-focused. #jerseyci #economy #jerseybusiness

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Moz Scott

7mo

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I agree it is desirable for Jersey to seek a piece of the New Economy that dominates global markets in order not to slide backwards or continue with its trend towards becoming a retirement colony. With limited STEM, new tech manufacture and modern management methods in the Island this is a challenge that government’s economists and States Members haven’t embraced. There is a distortion in the way rents are presented in GVA which this Twitter thread explains.

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Brian Murphy

7mo

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Kirsten Morel our new Breton based independent organisation the TransManche* Development Group (TDG) (*Cross-Channel) which is supported by both British organisations (in France) including the British Embassy, British Council, DIT, the Franco-British Chamber of Commerce and many Breton trade organisations including the chambers of commerce, the European Enterprise Network (EEN) the Rennes-Bretagne World Trade Centre (WTC) network and many infrastructure management companies including most of the Ports and Airports including Saint-Malo and Rennes and Dinard airports..) has been working regularly with our 2 amazing TDG Delegates in Jersey (Nick Steel at Jersey Business and John Vautier rural and maritime) for over a year now on ways of developing new business opportunities and highlighting positive developments to and from Jersey to the continent while also serving as an extra source of information around pre-Brexit and now post-Brexit changes. I would very much like to meet with you to discuss ways of developing more projects and accelerating our existing efforts. Until then may I wish you (and all the great people I’ve come to know through my work in Jersey and the Channel Islands) a healthy and prosperous 2022.

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Mike Waddington

7mo

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Hi Kirsten, the Association of Jersey Architects would welcome further dialogue with you on fairer more locally focussed/accessible procurement of Government projects. Can we meet in 2022, please, and look at buying more local?

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Tom Lewis

7mo

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Not surprised. Finance globally has been in decline, why would jersey be any different. Good luck getting a thriving tech industry going here, there is not enough talent or capital. I doubt house prices/rents will continue to rise if you don't see growth elsewhere. House prices are now so high, no one under the age of 45, that doesn’t have a mortgage already, wants to live here. Also, no one from the continent wants to work here anymore. So, good luck getting any growth without the numbers to push up consumption. If you want a solution instead of some moaning, I would say cloning what they did in Singapore is your best bet. However, I suspect there a lot of people who won’t like that idea.

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Nicholas Carter

7mo

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Interesting Kirsten

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Simon Franc

7mo

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Kirsten Morel absolutely agree, so can we have more spaces like digital Jersey where the tech industry can come together under one roof, share ideas and achieve rapid growth? Tony Moretta

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Florin-Mihai Caminschi

7mo

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Thanks for posting

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India Hamilton

7mo

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Great post!

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Kieron Lambert

7mo

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Spot on. Don't know what your views on this are but I've always been a huge advocate of tax breaks for local people (people living in Jersey, not just indigenous) setting up a high street business. Charge the high rates to next, jd sport etc and give the small guy a chance.

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Balvinder Bolla

7mo

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That's what happens when the govt pander to the needs of the wealthy and big business and tax the hell out of ordinary working people. Hopefully come June the current lot of ministers wil be replaced with those who actually care about the wider state of the economy, create a more diversified balanced economy, encourage local upskillkng and enterprise.

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