Vikram Mansharamani

With the #Patriot system having proven its efficiency against #Russia's weapons targeting Ukrainian cities, authorities have stressed the need to acquire as many batteries as possible to deploy a comprehensive air defense network over the country. However, #Ukraine's allies have been reluctant to part with these highly strategic equipment, often available in limited quantities and already deployed around critical areas. For example, #France, which has transferred a complete SAMP/T MAMBA system to Ukraine by mutualizing some elements with Italy, now has only eight batteries at its disposal to permanently protect its nuclear bases as well as occasional needs, such as the one currently deployed in #Romania as part of the Eagle mission, or the two others that are expected to be mobilized during the summer for the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games. As an alternative, Ukraine proposes producing Patriot batteries locally, partially or entirely. First, the Ukrainian authorities will need to convince the #US authorities and the multiple firms that manufacture the various components of the system. Will they accept? To know more about Ukraine's proposal and its challenges in acquiring Patriot batteries, read my article for AeroTime. #AeroTime

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The PFD issue in a nutshell: Hammond: 50% of PF earnings mostly to middle-income #AKfams (thru PFDs), 50% to the Top20% (to substitute for taxes). But now that their 50% isn't enough to avoid all taxes, the Top20% to the #akleg: give us more than half!! https://lnkd.in/gisVzAsD

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As $50B 🇺🇦 loan is on the table in G7 summit, there are three key takeaways: 1️⃣ Without the load Ukraine will struggle to pay for its war effort. 2️⃣ The US strongly lobbies EU allies to secure money influx for Kyiv. 3️⃣ Trump’s potential reelection could put Western support to Ukraine on a brink. https://lnkd.in/dfQnhKkH

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Another great episode of InFocus with Ejaz Haider in conversation with Tong Zhao on "Understanding China's Nuclear Thinking". The discussion focuses on China's nuclear strategy and thinking, including its commitment to no first use and the increase in its nuclear capabilities. The discussion highlights that there is a growing gap in threat perception between China and the US, which poses a challenge to bilateral nuclear stability. Following are the key themes from this conversation: 🚀 China's concern about US technological advancements, particularly in missile defense, undermines its confidence in its nuclear deterrence. China's fear that the US could neutralize its nuclear second strike capability, drives its pursuit of technological advancements and the increase in its nuclear warheads and delivery systems. 🛡️ The US's interest in intercepting a small number of Chinese strategic missile strikes challenges China's nuclear second strike capability. China's assumption of absorbing a disarming US first strike and having only a small number of surviving nuclear weapons leads to concerns about the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. 🌊 China's pursuit of power projection in the South China Sea and East China Sea creates threat perceptions among regional countries. These countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, become more worried about China's conventional military aggression, which in turn pushes them towards the United States and opposes China's desire for a no first use policy. ☮️ The US is open to considering China's proposal for a treaty on no first use, but questions China's nuclear development in relation to such a treaty. The US is unsure on how China's nuclear capabilities align with the principles of a multilateral no first use treaty. Watch this conversation here and subscribe to CSSPR's YouTube channel for quality content https://lnkd.in/dtkrMrQc

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U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors have spurred China's latest $47.5 billion investment in the technology, among other strategies, to develop processing power for AI. My latest in Forbes. Please comment, share, and subscribe. https://lnkd.in/eAVpr9P8

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The letter I sent to the three airlines regarding the indefinite suspension of air travel to Israel is more nuanced than the headlines from the press make it out to be. I am not calling for an immediate resumption of flights without regard to security. That would be irresponsible. I am simply calling for a reform of the process by which air travel is suspended. Suspensions should be time-limited (unless the security conditions on the ground dictate an extension) and should be based on a security assessment from the FAA.  If the FAA deems it too dangerous to fly to a particular country, it should say so, explain why, and order a suspension, as it did in 2014. Why is it so unreasonable to expect the barest amount of transparency especially when there is precedent for it? We live in a hyper-politicized world where corporations are susceptible to ideological capture by movements like BDS. We’ve seen it happen before—the risk is real. Whatever the motives of the airlines, a third-party security assessment from the FAA would prevent not only the substance but also the appearance of a boycott.

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The United States Must Rebuild its Shipbuilding Capabilities and Support its Maritime Industrial Base. Seth Cropsey writes in the WSJ Opinion/Commentary that this high priority should include significantly increased funding for the US Navy, working closely with allies, and training many more defense sector workers, as we counter our adversaries. Excerpts include: “The U.S. Navy is a ship without a rudder. The longer the service is allowed to decay, the more precarious America’s strategic situation will become. Turning things around won’t be easy. The best solution would be to retain every combat ship in the current fleet and encourage allies to pitch in with their own industrial bases. This expansion will require substantial funding, particularly in the workforce. Sea control is nonnegotiable for a dominant maritime power. The U.S. needs to deploy its forces from North America and shift them between different parts of Eurasia. If it can’t maintain a strong naval presence, it will be forced to follow the British rental-cum-alliance model, and its credibility across Eurasia will decline rapidly. America’s response to these worrying global developments should be a revitalization of American shipbuilding, aided by cooperation with allies. The U.S. will still have to build some of its own ships. Foreign firms can’t supply the missile-armed surface combatants, submarines, amphibious warships and carriers that are required to project power. Accomplishing a large-scale naval expansion will require an enormous workforce training program that brings in a new class of technicians.” https://lnkd.in/eWW4awBc

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“I suggest that the pursuit of American Primacy in the name of deterrence doctrine is actually aggravating regional insecurities and increasing risks of conflict. Put plainly, the pursuit of US Primacy in Asia is anathema to stability and peace in the region.” - more from my latest essay in ChinaUS Focus, which explores key issues impacting the security and future prosperity of Asia. 👇🏽 #asia #asean #security

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