Adam Maxwell

Once Upon a Farm filing for IPO is great news for the CPG ecosystem A few quick takes after reading the S-1: - Growth beyond pouches: 22% of revenue and 50% of growth coming from relatively new products (including Tractor Wheels - my daughter’s all-time fav) is impressive. If you asked me 5y ago for O’Farm’s biggest risks, being stuck in pouches and the fridge would have been top of the list - Valuable consumer: their customer base accounted for $78 billion in aggregate LTM retail sales — with only 4.4% household penetration, this speaks to O’Farm resonating with a consumer very willing to premiumize the set for the right brand / product attributes - Brand feels bigger than the business: $200m of LTM sales is no joke — esp since they were at $8m just 6.5y ago — but it’s less than I expected. Part of this is the national advertising campaigns that result from Jen Garner’s platform. Still, my gut says this business has room to run (definitely door count, also SKUs) - Cash burn: Growing this fast off a large base is not cheap — it requires a big team and a lot of marketing $ (top of funnel and in store). Still, I expect this to be the biggest push that O’Farm will get: when will the operating leverage show up? At $200m in sales, I would have expected them to be breakeven… - Scarcity of public emerging CPG: O’Farm will be the first pure play health & wellness food stock. There are very few ways for investors to play the biggest megatrend in consumer: healthier, emerging brands taking share from large CPG. In the public markets, you have energy drinks (Monster, Celsius), plant-based (Oatly, Beyond Meat). Above all else (incl a CEO with public co experience and a currency for M&A) I think this is the case for O’Farm going public rather than selling to big food Congrats to John Foraker, Jen Garner, Cassandra Curtis, Ari Raz & the O’Farm team / Jared Jacobs & the CAVU team

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When I was at IFT first explaining my Stanford research using AI for food scientists, one of the common insights I found was that food scientists have no idea how to leverage AI and it will take a long time until the food industry adopts this game changer. The research I did with really smart LLM engineers also taught me that it will take a lot of experts to really refine its use for very specific fields. Like dealing with fire, in the wrong hands, it's destructive. In the right hands, it can I dunno, cook meat faster (there's an analogy here somewhere) What I use ChatGPT for: - Reverse engineering top-selling products - Suggesting improvements for top-selling products - Developing framework SOPs for factory use - Translating said documents in other languages - Baseline develop a nutritional facts calculator - General research to understand in general what the consensus is saying As always, it depends on the prompt you use, and you should always read and scan for errors. It's similar to directing a student or intern. If you give bad instructions, you'll get bad results. What it's not good for - Any advice using food processing (it's not worth prompting for the right info) - Finding suppliers or manufacturers (80% of the links are outdated) - Finding experts (though I'm sure those who are getting found are getting clients. But probably not the good kinds. Referrals are best) Happy prompting!

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I’m a subscriber to a fabulous newsletter, The Business of Food, authored by Jennifer Barney. It’s really good. Her most recent edition includes a piece on atypical exit paths that are now becoming more of the norm in the CPG industry. In the piece, she cites examples such as Aura Bora, Tia Lupita and Omsom. Below is the link to subscribe and also an excerpt from the article… ----- So, what’s the play? If you're a boutique brand, your most likely exit path isn't a unicorn buyout. It's becoming a lifestyle business inside a strategic portfolio. That means: - Being radically transparent with potential acquirers - Structuring your cap table with investors aligned to your business type - Building relationships early, long before you need a sale If you’re in-between boutique and big, choose one of two paths: - High-Growth Path - P&L shows investment in marketing, team, and velocity. - Cap table includes VC-style investors who expect long-term exits and are okay with volatility. Sustainable Profitability Path - P&L reflects cost efficiency, gross margin optimization, and limited burn. - Investors understand slower, steadier returns—or dividend-based exits. Most food & beverage don’t get headliner exits but those that survive get continuity and best case, a role for the founder. I’ve been here before as a founder, and lived through it with brands I advise. If you’re not sure where you’re at, contact me to sort it out. https://lnkd.in/gyqX4DY2

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Per another post, I promised to compare CAVA's second quarter results to sweetgreen's. You can find my comparison summary at the end of this post. The net is Cava outperformed Sweetgreen in every metric except food cost, which actually reflects a greater investment in value that presumably showed up as better comps.. While not a blowout quarter like Q1, Cava's results still reflect a solid operating model vs. the challenged results of Sweetgreen. Cava has a few advantages over Sweetgreen. First, at $1-$2 lower comparing like-for-like entrees and a higher investment in food cost, they offer better value for money. Second, they have a more cost-effective real estate strategy. Cava focuses more on lower cost suburban locations than Sweetgreen, and also appears to operate out of significantly smaller spaces in urban areas. Their labor and G&A ratios also demonstrate better operating efficiency, which allows them to invest more in food and value. Finally and maybe most importantly, they execute at a higher level. Per Jonathan Neman's own admission, 2/3rds of their stores are not operating at the level the company views as acceptable. Sweetgreen is approaching two decades in operation. Turning things around will require reversing ingrained practices -- not easy even for a good operator, and it generally takes some time. I am a big believer in focusing on quality and winning with the customer before financial metrics, but at some point, your 4-wall and overall operating models have to work financially. From 2022-2024, Sweetgreen's cumulative operating losses are nearly $400 million. First half 2025 operating loss is $55 million. At some point, you need to question whether the model itself needs fundamental changes. Until you figure out that answer, you might want to back off of new store openings. I love Sweetgreen's commitment to healthy food, sustainability and responsible sourcing, but that only matters if you can demonstrate it is part of a sustainable business model. I am pulling for them to figure it out. As for Cava, they continue to be a standard-bearer in fast casual, albeit now off their former scorching-hot pace. While the comps. decelerated, they were still positive in a challenging environment. For all of the health-oriented salad and bowl concepts, navigating value will take some creativity and great execution for awhile. Cava's financial results will give them a fair amount of freedom making necessary adjustments. Sweetgreen likely won't have the same capability. As of this writing, Cava is trading down 22% to around $65 after hours. That's a $2 billion+ hit to its market cap, now a little over $7 billion. At that level, Cava's market cap is around 7X Sweetgreen's, who also took a major hit upon announcement. Based on recent performance and competitive positioning, I'd say Cava is the better buy. Having said that, any restaurant investment these days is not for the faint-of-heart.

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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. announced the acquisition of Dutch coffee giant JDE Peet's in an $18B all-cash deal, spinning off the combined coffee business into “Global Coffee Co.” With expected annual sales of about $16B and projected reach across 100+ countries, it will be the world’s largest pure-play coffee company, rivaling Nestlé in a global duopoly. The big question: will this massive consolidation improve how the coffee business operates, or simply give the new giant more power to raise prices? Investors may cheer, but consumers could end up footing the bill.

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Your pet's food might be killing them. The $60B pet food industry prioritizes convenience & profit over health. Here are 10 revealing truths from the "Pet Fooled documentary": Pet Fooled is a 2016 investigative documentary about the commercial pet food industry. Many people in these companies sincerely believe in their products and want to help dogs. 1. Four giants control the pet food market: Mars, Nestlé Purina, Hill's (Colgate-Palmolive), J.M. Smucker. They own hundreds of sub-brands, often made in the same facilities with similar recipes. Their scale sets industry standards. 2. Kibble was invented for convenience, not health. Long-term feeding is linked to allergies, obesity, and kidney disease. 3. Many commercial pet foods use cheap ingredients: Corn, wheat, soy fillers. "By-products" from rendering plants. Parts from diseased animals. Regulations don't require clear disclosure of sources. 4. Marketing terms have weak definitions: "Natural" means almost nothing. "Premium" is pure marketing. "Dinner" or "flavor" may contain minimal actual meat. Attractive packaging masks poor quality. 5. Industry is self-regulated through AAFCO. This association has no enforcement power. Big companies fund most research, so their data becomes the official understanding of canine nutrition. Problem? It's always kibble tested against kibble, never fresh food. 6. Pet foods are engineered to appeal to humans, not pets. Manufacturers add food dyes, artificial flavorings, shape molds to mimic real meat. These tricks mask actual nutritional value. 7. Fresh and raw diets are almost religious in controversy. Like vaccines, people have strong takes on both sides. I feed raw, but my view is simple: as long as it's primarily fresh whole foods, that's what matters. 8. Most vets receive minimal nutrition training. Their education often comes from pet food manufacturers who fund veterinary schools, provide free samples, sponsor conferences. This creates pressure to maintain status quo. 9. Major companies face structural challenges with transparency. Even good faith actors face pressure not to challenge the status quo. Big company funding creates a chilling effect on criticism. 10. One-size-fits-all formulas ignore individual needs. Requirements vary by breed, age, lifestyle, health status. Commercial diets rarely account for these differences. The lesson? Give pets the best diet within your means. If kibble fits your budget, that's fine. Choose quality and add fresh foods when possible. Years ago I rescued Arturo: frail, sick, aging fast. Through nutrition and supplements, he lived nearly 17 healthy years. That inspired Arterra Pet Science. What helped Arturo took 40+ supplements & ~$500/month. At Arterra, we've simplified that into ONE daily protocol at a fraction of the cost. Use code BIOHACK35 for 35% off: https://bit.ly/4kNiwbu Follow me for evidence-based biohacking protocols that actually work

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Last week was a BIG news week in regen CPG… Here are the top stories: 🍕 Cheddies joins forces with Steve Aoki to launch Pizza-Flavored Cheddies, crafted with regenerative cheese & avocado oil, now nationwide at Whole Foods Market. 🔬 Edacious & Regenerative Organic Alliance partner on a 4-year study testing 200+ ROC™ products, linking farming practices directly to nutrition & health outcomes. ☕ Rainforest Alliance launches its Regenerative Agriculture Certification for coffee (rolling out to cocoa, citrus & tea soon), giving farmers, brands, and consumers a new trusted seal starting in 2026. 🔥 Recoup Beverage lands in 50 Raley's stores across NorCal 🫘 SIMPLi launches 9 ROC™ pantry staples at Whole Foods 👏 Harmless Harvest debuts dairy-free yogurt drinks at Sprouts Farmers Market 🌿 Patagonia Provisions bets on Kernza crackers + beer to spark a food revolution 🌱 The number of regen certifications is growing - what do they mean? 🤝 Grown Climate Smart + Heartland Craft Grains announce a new partnership 🌾 PepsiCo profiles the regenerative efforts of Jóia Food & Fiber Farm through partnership with Practical Farmers of Iowa as part of broader $216M effort 🌍 ADM scales its regen ag program to 5M acres a year ahead of schedule 🤝 PepsiCo, Mars, & ADM support 24 Polish farmers across 5,454 hectares with regenerative transitions This and more in our latest newsletter issue! 📬 Subscribe here: https://lnkd.in/eARNDU7Q #regenerativeagriculture #regenerativefarming #regenerativefoodsystems #cpg #regenbrands #food #beverage #podcast #sustainability #innovation #entrepreneurship #startups #business 

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