Just a few months into office, the Trump administration has put in place a restrictive immigration policy while pursuing aggressive deportations. But these anti-immigrant actions come just as new U.S. Census Bureau data show that the rise of immigration over the past few years, including both legal and undocumented immigrants, bolstered population growth across the nation and, in particular, large metro areas.
In an analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data, The Brookings Institution’s William H. Frey finds that that recent immigration increase drove the population rebound of almost all major metro areas after sharp slowdowns and declines during the pandemic—suggesting these areas’ future growth will hinge on continued immigration gains.
Frey highlights several key trends from the U.S. Census Bureau data, including:
1️⃣ As a group, the nation’s 55 major metro areas shifted from a historic population decline in the peak pandemic year of 2020-21 to a gain of 2.3 million residents in 2023-24, with immigration from abroad accounting for almost all of that increase.
2️⃣ Only one of these 55 metro areas lost population in 2023-24, compared to 20 in 2020-21. Over this period, metro area New York rose from having the greatest population decline to the greatest gain.
3️⃣ International migration dominated growth in most major metro areas. Among the 54 metro areas that grew in 2023-24, immigration accounted for all of the growth in 21 and half or more of the growth in another 24.
4️⃣ Domestic migration patterns eased between the early 2020s and 2023-24. Out-migration from the metro areas that lost the most population slowed down, as did in-migration to the metro areas that gained the most population.
5️⃣ Cities and core counties within major metro areas saw demographic rebounds. Among 37 select core counties, 32 shifted from negative to positive growth from 2020-21 to 2023-24, with immigration contributing most to recent gains.
Moving beyond the current discourse over deportations, it is going to be necessary simply from a “numbers” standpoint to implement a comprehensive system of immigration that will enable the nation and especially its large metro areas to sustain a future of economic and demographic growth, Frey writes.
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