Novi Labs

In this week’s newsletter, we break down our Q3 2025 earnings analysis, where production tightened, capital costs eased, and operators held a cautious line on 2026 plans. Plus: a Midland Basin URTeC study comparing Arps vs. ML, a new Novi AI Roundup on the cost of delayed secondary bench development, and a quick walkthrough of the new Activity Tab in Insight Engine.

Delaying development in the Midland might be costing you more than you think. In this episode of The Novi AI Roundup, we break down new analysis showing that secondary bench development delays can lead to as much as 40% production loss, especially when parent wells have time to deplete aggressively. We explore: • Why timing matters more than ever in stacked development • How machine learning isolates the impact of delay • What this means for remaining inventory and long-term recovery If you’re modeling future potential based on best-case outcomes, this episode is a needed reality check. (Link in the comments)

This year, our gratitude goes to the customers, partners, our team, and the energy professionals who inspire us every day. Your trust, collaboration, and ideas drive the innovation we strive to bring to this industry. Thank you for being part of the Novi Labs community and mission. Wishing you and your families a warm, restorative, and joyful Thanksgiving.

Can machine learning really outperform Arps? This paper compares decline curve analysis vs. autoregressive ML across 2,350 Midland wells. The ML model: • Forecasted oil, gas & water • Performed at pre-drill and post-drill stages • Handled lift changes better than Arps • Delivered forecasts with <2% error after 90 days Download the full URTeC paper (Link in the comments) 

The new Activity Tab brings wells, rigs, frac crews, and permits together with real-time economic data like WTI and Henry Hub. Now you can see activity and market trends side by side, and understand how price shifts drive operator behavior.

The Q3 2025 earnings season came in steady: production tightened to the high end of guidance, capital costs trended lower, and reinvestment rates held at 60–70%. But most producers are still waiting before committing to 2026 plans. Read the full recap on Novi Intelligence. (Link in the comments)

In this week’s newsletter, we spotlight two divergent strategies in the Permian: Baytex Energy Corp. exits the U.S. with its $2.3B Eagle Ford divestiture, while Chevron invests big in gas-to-power with a 2.5 GW facility. Our latest deep dives unpack each move. We also release new corporate analysis on Diamondback Energy’s Tier 1–2 inventory runway and Permian Resources’ breakevens and capital strategy. Plus: ExxonMobil’s Sinochem buyout, water production drivers, and more from the Novi AI Roundup. 

As the largest publicly traded Delaware Basin pure-play, Permian Resources pairs a basin-leading cost structure with an inventory runway of ~16 years. Our new corporate report covers productivity trends, breakevens, and the company's ability to continue to execute on its "all of the above" capital allocation strategy. Read the complete report now on Novi Intelligence. (Link in the comments)

Your forecast is only as good as your inputs. And when wells are just a few months old, those inputs get noisy fast. In this episode, we dive into the challenge of forecasting early-life Permian wells, and why engineers are turning to machine learning to improve forecast reliability during the riskiest stage. We talk about: • How model uncertainty shifts between months 0–24 • Where Arps under- or overestimates recoverable volumes • And how ML is helping teams plan ahead with more confidence The first 12 months matter more than you think. https://lnkd.in/eXhhhhYM

Last week we covered Baytex Energy Corp.’s $2.3B Eagle Ford exit as a quick-hit reaction. Today, the full in-depth analysis is live on Novi Intelligence. We break down valuation, returns, capital allocation, and how the sale reshapes Baytex into a pure-play Canadian producer. Read the full report on Novi Intelligence. (Link in the comments)