Space Solar Power Institute
Director of Energy Economics
Researcher writing at OurFiniteWorld.com
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Director of Energy Economics
After many years in the insurance industry, I am now focusing my analytic skills on what I call "finite world" issues. These are the limits we are reaching that make financial growth difficult or impossible. They include limits on oil (frequently discussed under the topic of "peak oil"), limits on fresh water, limits on resource extraction, and limits on food. The issue of limits has a great deal in common with actuarial forecasts used in insurance and pension modeling.
Part of my work relates to the expected financial implications of limited oil supply. I also research issues related to substitutes for oil, including electricity and natural gas. I did not start my investigation with any preconceived notion as to "right answers." As a result, my investigations have led to many surprising findings.
I now write primarily on my own site, Our Finite World. My articles are reposted on several other sites, including Christian Science Monitor, Business Insider, Financial Sense, The Oil Drum, Investing.com, and OilPrice.com.
I also write academic articles and speak at academic conferences. I am working on writing a book for an academic publisher. I recently have agreed to be Director of Energy Economics for the Space Solar Power Institute, on a part-time basis.
I speak at many different types of conferences at locations around the world. I have spoken in Italy, Spain, China, and India.
Specialties: Peak oil, public speaker, consultant, forecasting, analysis, energy
Article explaining oil limits to actuaries, early in my investigation of Finite World issues.
A mostly correct forecast regarding what happened in 2008.
Write up of a talk I gave at the 2nd Annual Biophysical Economics conference, explaining what I saw that led me to the forecast I made in my January 2008 financial forecast.
Article for actuaries about the expected impact of oil limits on non-life insurance companies.
Explains why oil supply limits appear to have caused the 2008-2009 recession, and why they in general, can be expected to lead to debt defaults and recession. Article has so far been cited by 9 other articles. An unofficial version is available without charge at http://ourfiniteworld.com/oil-supply-limits-and-the-continuing-financial-crisis/
Explains how the symptoms the United States is suffering appear strikingly similar to those that earlier that civilizations suffered prior to collapse. These collapses typically took place over twenty or more years.
Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×109 MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×109 MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development.
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