Carl P. • Running a digital agency here in Sydney, I've noticed a massive shift away from developing Flash only, or Flash heavy sites in the last 18 months, sure that trend was accelerated by lack of support in iOS, but there has been a trend away from Flash anyway, particularly for marketing/advertising focussed sites. This was driven, in my opinion, by the rise of social media, and the migration of many marketing campaign sites to the social networks. Now you don't build a Flash microsite, you build a Facebook Page.

Personally I don't really care if Flash exists in the future or not, we can still do innovative work without it. Of course Flash is a cool way to deliver those immersive interactive experience sites, but let's face it, most web users are too busy hanging out with their friends on Facebook, or chatting on Twitter, to be bothered experiencing your branded experience.

Actually I will say that of all the projects we ever delivered, in the 100's of sites we built, Flash sites almost always went over budget. There were loads of caching issues, issues of support for the latest versions of Flash within many organisations, and I think generally people just always underestimated how long it takes to build amazing sites in Flash. So from a profitability perspective, Flash wasn't a great tool to use for a web agency.

We're also seeing a so much innovation with HTML, CSS and JavaScript, which are open technologies, search engine friendly and more 'Web 2.0'.

I'm not a Flash hater, some of the projects I'm most proud of are Flash sites, but I do think that the days of Flash on the Web are numbered.

Happy to be proven wrong of course!

Almog K. • @Carl definitely don't agree with you on a number of subjects. If you have great developers you can create great Flash sites within budget with no issues I work for a lot of agency there are set backs but if you do it right it work. But don't expect to pay $500 for a mini site.

I don't think you should be creating mini sites in Flash, you have HTML5 and JS however if you need something complex like a site with a game, Facebook game for a brand, Augmented Reality, or a really good mini site then yes you need Flash. I think FWA shows.

I do think @Rob has it down, customers are going to want Flash even if its gone in the further. Now for the full web experiences you need it. My money is on the "PlayBook"

Rimmon T. • @Carl Panczak: While I think you may be reasonable in some point, doesn't the last sentence mean "Flash will die soon" ? I'm sorry I can't agree with this and also not interested in opening a debate.

Jerome M. • I agree with Carl on the web side of things. Flash is not as necessary as it used to be. HTML is slowly catching up. Some of the features that were unique to Flash are now available in HTML/CSS/JS space. This is great for everyone.

One a side note: I don't think you would blame HTML if an HTML based site goes over budget. So same goes for Flash. It's not the platform's fault if people misjudge the time necessary to produce things.

Both technologies are not exclusive. They have not been in the past. I don't see why they would be in the future. Flash and HTML will co-exist. Flash sites will remain a niche and yes, flash sites will remain the coolest.

Flash on iOs is against Apple's bottom line and will therefore be kept out. Flash in the browser will remain. Flash as platform is pure awesome. It allowed us to say yes when many other agencies said no.

Most users understand the lack of Flash support on iOs and accept it. I know I do. My iPad is a casual browsing experience and most content is consumed via Apps. Keep in mind that beyond the basics, performance of Safari on iOs is quite poor.

Unless Steve can sell it to the board, I don't see Flash on iOs coming anytime soon.

Carl P. • Actually I realized that I didn't really address Rob's main point as to whether Flash on the iPad or iPhone matters. It will be interesting to see if consumer demand for the plug-in eventually drives Apple to support it, but as their business model and point of difference depends on selling Apps which the use of Flash could easily replace, I think they'll continue to resist pretty strongly.

Almog K. • I think at the end "apps" will go out the window, web based apps will grow and so will the demand for them. As a user I hate having to buy an app for my iPhone and then for my iPad. Plus you have Sencha which works great.

Carl P. • Jerome - yes you're right. The two technologies will continue to co-exist, but I do see Flash becoming more and more niche.

To respond to your point about budgeting for Flash sites, I'm not blaming the technology per se, however based on our experience Flash sites go over budget more often and we are very good at managing projects (generally), so draw your own conclusions!

Jerome M. • In all fairness, Flash sites do tend to blow budgets. They are often complex and multi-disciplinary. Incorporating audio, video, motion graphics, 2D, 3D production, UGC and advanced interactive features.

:)

Bas V. • I think flash is losing ground because of a number of things.
Front-end development (html, js, css) has grown rapidly. Back in the days, back-end developers did some HTML work along the side, and as long as the site looked good: the client was happy. But nowadays, it's a specialism itself. Which ofcourse accompanies with adequate javascript knowledge. And results in front-end developers who are capable of doing some nice tricks with the ui, which a few years ago only flash developers could accomplish.

And since iDevices are very popular, people -and most of all- clients feel it's important that their content is viewable on every device; desktop, tablet, phone. Which ofcourse leaves out the usage of flash, unless the client is willing to pay double for a flash and a html version. So apple definitely is to 'blame' if it comes to the decrease in flash solutions.

The reason why flash site 'blow' budgets, is simply because with flash you can almost do anything. So clients come up with fancy ideas and insane demands. Which they wouldn't do if it wasn't for flash.

Michal M. • running agency in the UK, and being flash enthusiast for many years, i must sadly confess that I am seeing a massive drop in Flash projects we get in.

And after trying to amend booking of ferry crossing on my iphone and seeing only a blue missing plugin box, I sadly too will reconsider all flash production in the future.

iphone ipad user base is simply too powerful! it is the misuse of flash for modules such as booking systems that kills it.

Jon K. • I don't think it matters. In my agency we build flash layer on top of a web 2.0 framework. The end user will still get a branded experience. Having said that, I'd prefer the convenience of flash on my iOS devices. Did someone say Frash?

Greg H. • Flash on iPhone (as mobile device!)
doesn't matter, obviously it is my personal opinion and I have a good sight so I think iPhone as "web browser" is down to read Google News, read some articles and check the telephone number or open hours of Tesco .. which on 3G connection can be quite annoying and challenging anyway.
The only problem I have is when I wanna show someone in pub my flash website.

Final thought - Too small screen for comfortable web browsing experience except reading text content.



As for the iPad, that's the different story.

First of all, I do not have one.
I played with Samsung Galaxy recently, Galaxy obviously doesn't look so nice like iPad but it has a descent size to play with web, and if something stopped me from buying iPad it would be lack of flash and I'm serious about it because I'm already bored with Apps.

If there will be tablet device which looks at least 80% so slick like iPad and support Flash I would go for it.

Final thought - Tablet Device is a pretty damn good way to experience benefits of internet, for sure, many people (excluding snobs and apple maniacs) will replace their "traditional" devices like laptops or computer boxes (especially with grow of Wi-Fi coverage - as 3G literally sucks). So it should have ability to support as many technologies/plugins/extensions as "traditional" devices.

Gene D. • Great feedback!

Personally, I have no attachment to Flash per-se - my objection in this case, is the draconian stance that Apple is taking with this particular piece of software. For better or worse, Flash is a de-facto standard at the moment; locking out a particular piece of software (and stepping on the toes of the one vendor that made apple what it is today) seems foolish. Can you imagine the lawsuits and PR fallout, if another Company (like say M$) decided to take a similar stance?

The users don't care HOW they get the content (as long as it's well packaged, and delivered professionally ), but we as content creators should be alarmed at one company holding a significant part of the internet hostage in this fashion.

Partly for this reason, we are a linux shop - 0 consequences, 100% control (also 150% more pain - i'm no fanboy ;)

G

Almog K. • @Gene 100% with you

Rob Z. • Molehill. Stage video. HTML5 animation exporter. We'll see a surge in flash development this year.

Almog K. • @Rob no doubt especially in the games and social games did you see NVIDIA Tegra 2 Flash gaming demo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmuZmMctl38&feature=player_embedded

Joel F. • Adobe dropped the ball on this...

I love Flash (I've done it for a living for 6 years) - but Flash is dying rapidly - and it's Adobe's fault and it was totally avoidable.

When everybody started pounding on Flash, shrieking to the World how much it sucks (they're still doing it) - did Adobe mount a massive "crisis / reputation management" marketing effort to put to rest the misinformed lies, rumors and innuendos spread about what is actually an excellent technology? They made a few milquetoast attempts at clawing back but it wasn't even close to the type of campaign that should have been mounted.

It might be too late. All you have to do is right-click on DIVs all over the Internet that used to be Flash. No more.

Thanks Adobe.

Joel F. • BTW - the marketing effort should have been aimed at the managers who make the decisions about which technology gets used. Not the lead Developer - but his boss. I work for The Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, etc.... Adobe has done NOTHING, ZERO about coming in and telling the decision-makers how Flash can save tons of time and money since you don't have to code for browsers, etc.

We used to have Flash all over our site. Now - it's only used for the video Player (for now).

Rob Z. • @Joel. I mostly agree with you. However, those "managers" should be in the know. They shouldn't rely on developers or sales people to keep them up to date on technologies. js and html are (will be) great, but there are things that can only be done using flash. The experiences that can be created with flash are much richer, can be developed quicker and you don't have to deal with all the browser compatibility bs.