Sanjeev S
QA Lead at Excellus BCBS/ Co Founder at Technix-India at Technix-India
U.S economy has fallen into a recession. Is it going to continue till 2009-2010?
The U.S economy has fallen into a recession that seems to continue throughout all of 2009 and may be more. Job cuts are also likely to continue over the next six months, which will likely make the recession deeper and people to feel depression. The Car company like GM, Crystlar, and Ford...etc is into big trouble and it seems they don’t have any other option rather than firing 1000 and 1000’s of people from job. The same situation is appearing with Macy’s, Circuit City and many other small and big shops & industry. The question is who is loosing job and in near future who will be the next? What is the future of IT/Software industry in the year 2009-2010?
No doubt till date, skilled labors (MBA’s Engineers, Executives) is not impacted much and their job seems to be bit secure as compare to the unskilled labors. It’s wrong to consider IT/ software as an industry. I would say that IT/ software are supporting industry which works in conjunction with any other industry. There is no such IT/software industry as stand alone. If the recession continues and there is no improvement in the market then the next will be skilled labors (MBA’s Engineers, Executives) to be fired from jobs. It’s a tough time for company to make a new investment or to go for any enhancements. If there is no new investment or enhancements then there will be less work into computer software field. And people will loose job. If there is no improvement in U.S economy and if it continues till 2009 or more then very soon other countries will be impacted. I would say already other countries are impacted but the visibility of the situation is less.
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FRANK F
●Ex-Banker / Futurist ●30-yr Track Record ●Keynote Speaker ●Interim-contract CEO ●120-day Refocus / Re-invent/
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The Federal Reserve says the economy will be in recession until at least mid-2009. My own view is that the recession might hit bottom in the Fall of 2009. The housing market will not bottom until them, at the earliest. So consumer confidence cannot return until after then. The first signs of growth will be in data that comes out in Spring 2010.
However, to the extent that the financial sector bail-out is less that successful, the recession will be deeper and will last longer.
If we get into a debt-deflationary spiral, then there will be a depression, or at minimum a lost decade of basically no growth.
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I agree partly with Ray. I also de not believe we have seen the worst yet. Lays offs are now starting to come. People with bad loans on houses and on creditcards will now lose also there job or at least they will be very unsure about there jobs. Those people will be very carefull with spending wenn they still have money..... This all still have to hit the companies.
I expect the bottom at the earliest in the middle of 2010. Than it will stabelize and in the end of 2011 the economy will slowly recover. I expect a world wide recession of a very big scale....Fasten your seatbelts....thr worst have still to come.........
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Ray M
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I do not think it has not hit bottom yet. I do not expect it to hit bottom until next Summer at the earliest and a recovery until 2010 to 2011.
Marc-Alexandre V
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I'm personally planning as if the recession will last until 2011. This is the date I've heard most often.
Marc A
Product, Program and Project Manager
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Bottom is next year sometime;
Then we wallow in it for 2-5 years;
Then we have a couple of false starts out of the wallowing 2-5 years;
Then the recovery begins 5-25 years;
Then we top out and drop precipitously 2 years
Then we fake a recovery 5 years
Then we crash all over again 1 year
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