Neal L
Telecom Investor, Broadband Pioneer, Contrarian Thinker. Will be the World's richest man by 2020.
10 Gigabit Ethernet - What is the trend?
Before making a major announcement next month, I have a few questions for the members of my fantastic network:
1. What do you think will be the cost per port (10 GbE) in the next 12, 24, 36 months respectively?
2. How can you configure this (qua port density per switch, switching frames, plant etc.) best?
3. What small (public or private) company would be a good supplier?
4. Would you build your own switches if you were to deploy 25 million ports in 8 years time? Why yes (own your supply chain, etc.), why not (out of focus, etc)?
Please, do not send me just a link. I a looking for answers and interaction, not links.
I thank you in advance.
Regards,
Neal
neal AT iuhba DOT com
Company site: http://iuhba.com
Company blog: http://glassified.wordpress.com
Clarification added 8 months ago:
Dear Doug and Kelly, thanks for your feedback. My interest is in Fiber To The Home/Office, not just dark fiber or metro networks. We have major projects coming up, and we have 4 patents that will make our lives easier when it concerns fiber optical infrastructure.
Kelly, it is often said that wireless will compete with wired in the future, but although I'd wish that be true, I don't agree. Fiber optics is progressing towards 40 Gbps, and then to 100 Gbps. The end users will receive this kind of connectivity per household/office... it is just a matter of time. Wireless can't come close to the per-user-bandwidth/capacity that wired (read Fiber) can provide. The most major advantage of wireless/mobile is of course the non-static availability... one can roam around and be nomadic or truly mobile. The advancements in wireless technology are promising, but they will most likely lag wired (fiber) technology when it comes to individual connectivity/capacity rates.
Doug, man oh man... 1 Tbps... I'd love that! ;-)
For more background info on our ambitions, I recommend you to check our blog: http://glassified.wordpress.com
Clarification added 8 months ago:
Thanks for responding. I recommend those who are interested to join the Next Generation Development and Infrastructures Consortium. http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=953107
There are 950+ members, and the interaction (mainly on telecom topics) is great.
Answers (6)
Douglas M
Learning Professional with an eye on ROI - eLearning Developer, Tech Writer, Instructional Designer
Best Answers in: Occupational Training (2), Customer Service (1), Education and Schools (1), Product Design (1), Career Management (1), Ethics (1), Computer Networking (1), Software Development (1), Using LinkedIn (1)
Ten years ago I was part of a pioneering group within an MSO that commercialized dark fiber. The profits were high and we knew we were laying the foundation of a nationwide multi-gigabit network capable of competing with the entrenched SONET net of the IXCs. Comcast purchased the MSO and decided commecialized dark fiber was not part of its core compentency at the time and in 2001, closed the nationwide group down.
Fast forward...
Who has dark fiber? Just about every municipality.
Who has nationwide dark fiber? Just about every IXC.
Who has multi-gigabit networks? Just about everybody.
What's the big deal about 10G? Nothing, it's been available since DWDM and CWDM.
What would get the interest of the market? Local Point-To-Point 10Gigabit Ethernet; 10GB RPR with 50ms switching, like SONET; 10Gbps in the cloud.
We could talk about the rest, but the important thing, before any of your questions can be answered is to determine if there is a real market need for 10Gbps locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally.
Tell me about 1Tbps Ethernet and then you have my attention. (grin)
Regards,
Doug
Kelley J
Senior IT consultant and strategist
Best Answers in: Contracts (1), Databases (1), Using LinkedIn (1)
My first impression is that you're on your way to designing a machine-turned, anodized, high performance buggy whip. Sorry, but I don't believe wired is the future - it's ultimately hard to scale. I would think advances in wireless and wire guides will turn the whole question of switching points into a virtual one.
But if you insist on using wires or light pipes, go for the solutions that have the best packing density. And for solutions on the scale you're looking at (25 million ports - are we talking part of a large municipal broadband rollout here?) -- I'd suggest you try to contact your counterpart at Krone. Because it ain't all Cat-6 any more.
Brian M
VP Sales Solutions & Operations [LION] at Interoute
Best Answers in: Telecommunications (11), Wireless (2), Computer Networking (1), Using LinkedIn (1)
Well, when it comes to wired vs wireless, both will have their place for the forseeable future. I can remember pundits saying that hard drives were dead many times, but anything larger than a low spec Netbooks still comes with a harddrive.
Certainly on the IP front we have large service providers coming to us for multiple X 10G ports for Internet connectivity. We don't however supply the residential market so anything about 10G to the home is beyond my ken.
Capacity to the corporate office is of course still growing, but the trend to host applications and content in the network/cloud is slowing that same trend. The issue is not getting 10GE into the office, or even distributing it, it is the cost of ensuring that the infrastructure (power, cooling, security) is available 24 X 7.025...
Wireless helps, but I can't use my bluetooth stereo headsets when walking in downtown London because of WiFi hotspot interference. If every office has 10Ge it had better be at a dedicated frequency, and wireless networks will probably require planning permission for a new building profiles along high capacity 10GE wireless routes.
The cost of capacity will decline, but the per mile/kilometre cost of installing fibre won't.
John K
Electronic Network Designer / Architect
Best Answers in: Wireless (3), Telecommunications (2), Business Development (1), Computer Networking (1), Information Security (1)
Hi,
The answers depend on the architecture. I pretty much expect hardware prices to be price elastic. Hardware prices are not the issue, it is concomitant build volumes.
If you plan to configure 'en-mass' you need to take control over the management of the configuring software and it should be 100% automated.
I would not build my own switches - you need to partner: unless you are particularly clever!
Clarification added 7 months ago:
Mobile networks are now progressing towards >1Gbps interfaces as per user broadband traffic levels are low, much less than 100kbps per user! They are using active/standby configurations for these interfaces so we could be bold and say that a network has 2 x 1Gbps. However only one is used at a time!
Now mobile networks are considering 10Gbps interfaces, and will consider n x 10Gbps interfaces in due course. However per user traffic is likely to remain relatively low.
So where is the traffic for 10Gbps interfaces per user in FTTH coming from? Does anyone know?
1. The cost will be around 1000$/Month since in 2005 one hundred(100Mbps) cost in japan 70-100$ so 1Gb will cost almost 100$ and 1G 1000$ after 36months
2. since the max uplink is actually 40G you can have 4 port of 10GE but I think you can have 2 redundant uplink for 8 GEs is still possible
3. The good supplier is always from the private sector (as much as I know) however you can find good one in publiic
4. Built your own switch is a must. Because the price will be cut at least 40 %. You will spread the technology and solution, and will increase your revenue. The most important is : you will be technology driver for manufactorers not follower (you will manufacture products based on requirements. Before operators await vendors to propose new solution based on their own roadmap and market/business control...)
Wallis D
Experienced Solution Architect / Manager - Service Layer Domain at Ericsson
Best Answers in: Telecommunications (3), Computer Networking (1), Wireless (1)
Hi Neal,
10GB is a very good start. Just look at the laptop / PC Market where Volumes of storage is supported. As the applications are getting complicated and the size is increasing exponentially there is an ongoing need for much needed bandwidth and QoS. Focus should be on "beyond 10G". With Web2.0, Video Sharing, etc.. the bandwidth will be fully consumed.
VBR/ Wallis Dudhnath