Cloud Computing : Do we just need a Web Browser ?
Will computers just become dumb machines, with internet connectivity ?
Will we all be happy with
- Storage in the Cloud
- Applications in the Cloud
- Computing Cycles in the Cloud
- Integration in the Cloud
Is a Storm coming ?
Answers (11)
Marc A
Product, Program and Project Manager
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Hahaha;
There are a lot of people out there who should have all processing power removed from their premises - they are not qualified to operate it. Cloud computing would likely decimate the "bot net" industry, because the average user would no longer require local processing, and therefore would not be nearly as susceptible to becoming a zombie. For them, cloud computing is the answer.
Then there are those of us who know how to keep our systems clean (without calling a help desk) and who revel in making our machines do interesting things. We are very rarely members of botnets, and never for very long. We, however, are not going to want to give up our personal MIPS. We may use the cloud for the simple things, but we'll keep many other things local to our own processor.
Not everyone is a geek - cloud is the environment for the non-geek.
Jason K
Lead Developer at AMCO
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Back to dumb terminals with "the mainframe" being the cloud services?
The answer depends entirely on who "we" is in your question.
If you're talking about the average computer user, who uses websites, reads email, and chats with friends. Then already a browser is all they need.
If you're talking about the business professional, then they'll use whatever Microsoft makes it easy for them to use. If Microsoft had shipped Vista with cloud solutions for Outlook, Word and Excel then we'd probably be there already (although that cloud would probably have been located within the enterprise).
If you're talking about the smaller percentage of computer users who actually do CPU intensive operations on their PCs: developers, graphic designers, CAD users, musicians, etc., then no - it'll be a long time before local responsiveness no longer outstrips cloud solutions for highly interactive applications.
Brian C
Software Architect at Epicor
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Lots of services that are traditionally done at the client are starting to move towards the cloud, but I don't think that implies the death of the client heavy application nor does it imply a fundamental shift in client hardware.
I think the promise of cloud based computing is more to provide ubiquitous availability and scalability for client data and apps than it is about taking processing load away from the clients entirely. Lots of services can benefit from execution at the client like complex ui rendering.
So needs at the client I think will keep the computer more or less the same though I could see the need to upgrade client systems slowing down. It already is IMO although I don't know that it's actually reflected in consumer buying habits.
Professionals who work with large amounts of data and do a lot of computation are likely to continue for some time using client heavy software to do the lifting. Cloud services can be beneficial to such applications, but even if for instance we used a cloud data storage service with an application I still benefit from having a local disk caching and computation.
So no; I don't think we're going to see the death of computers as we know them today just an increased collaboration between computers and cloud services that will make applications feel ubiquitous, disk and processing power feel infinite, ... A lot of lifting is still best done on the client end.
Ask me again in 5 years and I may change my tune...
John R
Media Test and Tools.
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Jonathan: The cloud is interesting for virtualization, infrastructure, bandwidth, and other factors that advance competition. Perhaps if there are enough clouds to fit user priorities, then a browser could dominate, though it might be more than what is currently used, e.g. giving a state of the cloud similar to what a task or process manager does for desktops or servers. One cloud fits all may be tough. Internet is useful for some time, but users may want to customize their client side so that may have some level of software. Storage for some customers may be less attractive unless access to content can be tightly controlled including from the cloud equipment support vendor. Applications may have something for everybody. Computing cycles are tricky, e.g. if it is mission critical or has requirements for particularly intense peak times; this would have to built into the access rights for insitutional use or have pricing. Integration in cloud might be tricky unless the latter has strong standards. Storms seem likely since after all the euphoria and battles, there hasn't been the need to deal with various tax structures in this medium as much as in other businesses such as retail or telecomm. Thanks.
Les D
Software Quality Assurance Lead
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I believe not, there is a different trend moving at the same time, multiple CPU's and more data locally.
Along with capability, or in contrast to it, there is the matter of control, I like many want local applications and storage where I am not at risk of some other firms failure, failures of the network and unknown access.
I think we have seen a lot of evidence in past efforts like X Windows/Disk-less nodes that have been marketing failures.
Karl G
CTO/Owner Intelligent Fusion, Enterprise Architect, Business Strategist, PhD
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Who knows? With virtualization like VM Ware, many users might already be floating happily in the cloud and not even know they've already been plugged in and assimilated.
Dave M
Senior IT Consultant & Entrepeneur
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We have gone from central mainframes, to client server, back to mainframes... well... close enough with the java model!
I dont believe a web-browser is the answer to every question - although many businesses are spending fortunes re-writing perfectly good programs to run nice and slowly over java just so they are "web enabled".
I believe in the right tool for the right job - and yes, I think there will be a backlash somewhere down the line from all these business users finally demanding to be "empowered" again.... something that they started getting used to in the 90's.....
Now, given the juniors of the 90's are starting to become the senior management of today... yes.... perhaps the storm is starting to brew on the horizon.
Mark M
Business technology professional helping organizations achieve their business goals
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Most consumers are happy with the cloud. Startups and smaller businesses are happy with the cloud. Now enterprise needs to be convinced of it and it will begin "happening".
Cloud computing and storage is a smart way to save money and put a utility approach to everyday needs. With the utility of the cloud, businesses can outsource processing and storage.
Links:
Mark Mathson gave a great answer and blog link in his reply, but it's worth going down one additional level of detail.
A cloud is operated by something. That something is software and people need to be able to interoperate with that software. So the question is twofold.
1) What does that software do.
2) What does the interaction model look like.
Part one is mostly undefined. The term cloud computing is only a few months old at this point and there is no definition that I've seen that describes in detail what the services are and how they work. Since cloud computing is a subset of grid computing we can make some educated guesses as to how this will turn out.
o There will have to be a security model. This model will be complex enough that I'm calling out additional specifics. Currently there is no model specified in any definition of cloud computing.
o That model includes delegation. In the early development of the grid we had a security model without delegation and it was a non-starter. Anytime you need to request something of a service you need to delegate authority to that service.
o That model will have to be multi-institutional. By this I mean that the model must allow people from different communities to be able to access the resources within the cloud without having to join a common security domain. The owner of the resources will have to be able to make local decisions about who is allowed to use his resources.
o Monitoring will be complex, but must run on a common backplane. In the grid community we have hierarchical, distributed monitoring that allows canonical services and a variety of applications to push monitoring information upstream to consumers. No definition of cloud computing currently has any monitoring specification.
o Data handling will be a challenge. In the grid community we discovered early on that moving data between facilities was a bottleneck due to some decisions made in developing TCP decades ago. We worked around these to develop protocols that move data at near theoretical maximum rates even in WAN environments. We also found that people who want to move a lot of data find it cumbersome to manage the processes to do that themselves. We developed 'fire and forget' mechanisms to moving data. A user can make a request, walk away and check the results the next day. As a side note, this behavior requires delegation to work in a secure fashion.
All of the above have to be dealt with before one even begins to contemplate the VM issues that seem to dominate the cloud computing discussions.
The second part is about how the user will interact. That one is much more trivial to answer. Our users already interact in a variety of ways. Some examples include browsers, native applications, java applications, remote desktops and display technologies like x-windows.
All of those will continue to be in play in a cloud based architecture because each has significant structural, administrative and performance advantages that have led to their survival for a long time.
The cloud won't be about what window a user interacts with, it will be about the plumbing that makes that window useful.
Click on my profile for contact information if you want to have a deeper discussion.
Links:
Dennis K
Lead Architect. Former director of Professional Services at GridGain.
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Dennis K suggests this expert on this topic:
As a GridGain founder he knows pretty much about cloud computing.
Michael K
Software Consultant at Bit Byte and Logic
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Hard to say. But I doubt it. I don't think your question can be answered reliably because you're asking about the future. Funny how that works. :)
I do think that some applications are better suited to so-called Cloud Computing than others. But with the right kind of technology changes, especially in terms of infrastructure and hardware performance, then every application could be made to work decently okay in that paradigm. It may not make sense for all applications to go that way, but it could be made to work.
Email in the browser works fine today, for example. But CPU-intensive FPS games do not. But that could change. If the hardware got beefier, the pipe got fatter, etc. Again, it may be inefficient to do that, but that's never stopped mankind before.
Storing stuff in the cloud that you want to share publically, or, access while you're mobile, makes sense.
Storing stuff in the cloud you want to keep private (a trade secret, for example, about a process/breakthrough over which you have no patent or court-enforced IP protection), probably does not make sense.
The more stuff put in the cloud will mean that the cloud increasingly becomes a necessary utility, and an avenue of attack for our enemies. Unfortunately, the decision to put things in the cloud is not going to be made by a single, benevolent, wise, all-knowing protector type of person, who's only looking after our best interests, but rather, by lots of individuals. So it's going to happen, increasingly (I think), whether it's wise or not to do.
The long term forecast calls for Partly Cloudy Computing, with a chance for rain in the late afternoon. :)
