How quickly do you anticipate H1b visas will run out this year?
Last year, H1bs in the general quota ran out on April 1st, the first day application were accepted. In addition the Master's quota for H1bs ran out by April 30th. How quickly do you anticipate both these quotas will fill this year? Do you feel the economic climate will reduce applications?
Cheers,
Dan
Answers (10)
Not to sound rude or hateful, but not fast enough. *smirk*
When the media started the false rumor that there were not enough technical personnel in the United States during Clinton's tenure. The total number of H1 visas was expanded to allow more people in the program. Gee whiz, at that same time contract positions through out the United States began dropping, and recruitment firms started reporting to applicants that they were getting 100s if not 1000s of resumes for openings they were posting. To me it was not a lack of experienced technical personnel, but not enough that would work for under $25 an hour.
Just my real life experience.
John M
Owner, Colosseum Builders
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The H-1B quota will be expended the first day.
The H-1B system has developed to the point where usage is economic driven. It is now an immigration-driven system where the demand for visas reflects the number of people who want to come to the U.S. and the growing pipline to bring them to the U.S. (For example, I conservatively estimate that here in New Jersey we get 5 H-1B computer programmers for every programming job created in the state.)
We now have people setting up corporations in their basements and importing people on H-1B visas. Charge the :"employee" the cost of the visa up front, serve as a paper employer, and take a percentage of what the "employee" earns on his own.
The number of labor certifications for 2007 was way up over previous years. I would expect a record number of applications this year on day one.
I agree that the quota will run out on the first day. Last year for some reason USCIS accepted all filings in the first two business days, which numbered approximately twice the number of visas available -- so the chances of any particular application in the H-1b "lottery" were approximately 50 percent. This year I expect that USCIS will accept only those applications received on Day 1, and there will be measures taken -- that were not in place last year -- to ensure that employers do not file duplicate petitions to increase their chances.
That said, it would be impossible to guess the chances in this year's "lottery." Each year American employers are better prepared, but as you point out, the economic downturn may affect demand.
Aaron M
Senior Manager, Business Immigration at Maggio & Kattar
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The prevailing attitude is to prepare for both the "regular" allotment of H-1Bs and the "masters" allotment to be fully subscribed on April 1. To plan or file otherwise is to put the given H-1B petition(s) at risk for rejection. H-1Bs for nationals of Chile and Singapore should continue to be available, and Australians can skip the H-1B mess by using the E-3 visa.
As for decreased demand, there may be some decrease as H-1B dependent companies and other employers find other ways to meet hiring needs (like Microsoft opening a campus in British Columbia) and as some companies reduce the number of new hires, but there will still be more demand than supply.
Tom A
Sr. Contract Recruiter at Life Technologies
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As others have pointed out, you can expect the allocation to be hit on the first day. Keep in mind, too, that this visa is not just for IT people, either; it's for specialized technical skills. That means not just software folks, but scientists and other high-level work. Biotech/biopharmaceutical companies, for example, continue to grow at a rapid rate and need to hire a steady stream of scientists to keep up with the demands of the research. Too few US college students are getting PhD's in the sciences to meet that demand.
I agree that the general H-1B cap will likely be exhausted on the first day of filing (April 1). It will also be interesting to see how long the Masters Cap lasts. Last year it was exhausted by April 30, and I would assume it will be earlier this year. Although, it would be a surprise if the Masters Cap too was exhausted on April 1. Time will tell.
Links:
Pete R
Manager, Technical Recruiting & HR Systems at comScore, Inc.
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I expect that it will be filled by Day 1. Likely (and to be more specific) hour 10 of Day 1. Anyone who thinks that companies don't already have the stamp on the envelope/finger on the trigger, are mistaken. Also the Masters cap will likely go Day 1 or 2, because so many masters' candidates last year had to file under bachelor due to missing paperwork (those who are May grads)
Alot of this has to do with, as someone said, people building H1B shell companies, and the 3rd party vendors who bring over 100 H1B's and sub-sub-sub contract them through staffing agencies. And that is truly sad, as it makes it tougher for companies to file for candidates who went through their due diligence and want to work here.
We are not filing any new visas this year due to the lottery issue. Companies sending 2 and 3 apps. for the same person is shameful, both on the company and the government for using an archaic system that can't catch that.
It's a truly frustrating scenario.
Lalita H
Independent Law Practice Professional
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The popular guess - the very first day.
You could be just a little more optimistic about the masters cap, or may be not because everyone would like to be better prepared this year and stay in the front of the line.
Thank you all for the excellent input. This is by far the best thread out there on the topic.
Is everyone making worst case scenario predictions with regards to the MA quota? Let me elaborate:
1. The pool of candidates is likely to be smaller this year due to soft hiring and a slower and volatile economy.
2. A lot of the legitimate companies have deliberately cut down the number of individuals they will sponsor. It appears that most legitimate companies will be sponsoring people hired last spring / early summer or those that were rejected last year and worked on OPT up until now.
3. Since most of the scammers cover the filing costs themselves, some may be deterred by the bleak predictions and the expected lower success rate.
4. The quota getting filled fast last year does not have any relation whatsoever with the number of people graduating from Masters programs this year. The Masters quota captures US degree holders only. A good number of the scam artists come directly from India and hence will not fit in this category. If there is relationship between the quota disaster from last year and the hiring of US MA degree holders with degrees conferred in 2008, I expect that it will be a negative one.
5. The only logical reason for an increased demand for US MA degree holders can be an influx of applications on behalf of people who had their degrees conferred after the 30th of April in 2007 (who may or may not have applied under the BA quota in 2007).
Bear in mind that the quota stayed open will the 30th of April, meaning (roughly) that all the MA holders on OPT (i.e. 2006 grads) and all that had their degrees conferred in December 2007 filed on the April 1 2007. There rest of the April applicants were most likely stragglers (2006 grads) and those that got their degrees sometime during the month of April.
I realize that most people graduate after the first of May. But given that the OPT and December grad population from last year was around 11,000 (I am not precise here, this is the figure I remember for the MA flings on the first day) how many can they be this year?
Also keep in mind that many people file for H1B after the completion of their OPT year and not immediately after their school work is completed.
6. The USCIS issued a memo detailing that multiple H1B filings for a single person will not be accepted this year. This information is being circulated by immigration lawyers and from my understanding it is not yet clear if it is the USCIS will actually act upon this memo. If they do - it will be more than shameful if they don't - that can only alleviate some of the problems you all mentioned.
This is all I have - this is my personal opinion and obviously just a conjecture. I would appreciate your comments.
The regular H-1B cap is likely to be hit on the first day of filing, April 1. Federal regulations stipulate that in years where the cap is reached on the first day, petitions received the second day must also be included in the random selection process. Still, the key filing date everyone is shooting for is April 1.
With no immediate relief from Congress in site, the critical question now is how to keep professional jobs in the US instead of having businesses move their operations overseas, thereby losing even more US jobs.
The H-1B cap crisis is also impacting other visa categories, as employers turn to E, L, O, and TN categories to hire essential workers.
