Risks of higher or lower solar activity are unclear, in spite of ever more science and data.

On the front of a direct civilization crash, it would be nothing like 5000 or 10,000 BC... for starters, we have thousands of times the population, and in a break down this would have a locust like effect, additional devastation of otherwise renewable resources by desperate people.
We also have considerable technologies that would not be damaged by EM pulse, radiation, lost of satellites... the entire suite of mechanical technologies would still be available, internal combustion engines, mechanical pumps. We also would retain some core of scientific knowledge, bacterial and viral theories of disease along with vaccination, systematic plant breeding (even if the tools of genetic engineering became rare being built around computer/electronic automation)
The risks may be increasing, 30 years ago, cars and trucks had very little electronic controls, today they can be disabled by EMP.
Ignoring the population drop and chaotic damages, our technical civilization might have to rework from a century back (first distribution of electricity for industry was in 1870's, big events in US of power for industry in the 1890's....)

It is also true, that we have technologies to mitigate or protect even our sensitive electronics against such solar events....Some are already deployed, but possibly not enough to protect the grid....other appliances it is a cost fact. In thinking about this class of risks, it is also worth being aware that we design a lot of our systems to tolerate the EMP from lightning, and grid has additional design factors from strikes. That dosn't mean your computer will survive a direct strike on your power box, but they are not destroyed when you hear thunder either.

Being contentious and very speculative....solar activity, plus or minus is a power driver of climate.... if one just likes to worry, one might chose a few percent drop in total output, and ice ages as well.

posted February 28, 2011

Could Super Solar Flares Take Us Back To 5000 BC?

Actually, that's what the GOP would like...

posted March 1, 2011

As per another Carrington event - perhaps at some time, but unclear we understand the sun enough to say it happens at this solar max or in 1,000 years.

If it were to happen then how close to the equator does it go? Comment is that electronics might not be touched south of 30 degrees so we wouldn't go back to 5k BC.

What happens if we get hit by a really bad gamma ray burst? Planet gets sterilized - bummer.

I think it would be good if electronics and transformers/grid were built to withstand a bad flare, but other than that can't worry about it too much.

Other comment is that the flare would have to be aimed at earth.

M2 isn't much of a flare anyway compared to the record X20 in 01, which thankfully was not directed at earth.

Other comment is it would be interesting to know who has shielded their networks, satellites, utilities, grids, semiconductor fabs, etc.

On a side note I think if we worked together as a species our species would last a lot longer. Meaning the more we understand space and physics then the sooner we can have defenses against high energy events, asteroid impacts, invaders from Mars (damn Martians), etc.

Links:

• http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/X17/

posted March 1, 2011

I'm going to ignore the scientist making predictions about the future by using occurrences in the past as predictors. That's such bad science it doesn't bear comment. We can just say that the sun is capable of emitting electromagnetic radiation is such quantities that, if they are directed at Earth it could have a variety of deleterious effects. The range of effects could logically be said to include everything from increased temperature of a fraction of a degree for a short period of time to sterilization of the planet from all life (Mars).
Implicit in your question is an event somewhere in between that is sufficiently powerful to destroy all electronic technology but leave all life. Given this premise, I believe some basic assumptions based on economics (supply and demand) and technology distribution can be made.
First, the effect will not be equally felt. To speak of Earth's civilizations as homogenous misses the point that we are not. The person living in New York City, London or Hong Kong, who is completely dependent on an interconnected distribution network for every aspect of their life (food, water, power) has virtually nothing in common with a tribesman living in a South American rainforest who hunts for their own food, drinks from the local river and doesn't have a clue as to what power is. Who do you think will suffer most in the scenario drawn by your question? With modern machinery controlled by micro-processors in almost every respect (fuel injection computers) the entire distribution system will cease functioning almost instantaneously. Cities have little to no reserve of food or other items. And since all cities would be affected similarly (assumption) there would be little available help from one area to another. So you can assume mass starvation preceded by cannibalism, within 40 - 60 days, among city dwellers. This affect would be less and less apparent as you move from the city to the town to the village, finally to the solitary dweller who lives near nature, with available food and water.
Second, Kindles, Google, etc. out, books in. Human knowledge and our ability to recreate some semblance of the physical comfort that we currently enjoy would be dependent on educating future generations. Most of the knowledge and ability of mankind lies within the human beings that live within the cities. They would have starved and so much of the medical knowledge, manufacturing knowledge, metallurgy etc. would have perished with them, but for the knowledge that is capture within books. Mechanical engineering in, Electronics engineering out.
So if I accept the premise of your question, I don't think we go back to 5000 B.C, but I do think that we go back immediately to about 1890 and rapidly progress back to 1930. After that, it is a long slog back to 2010. That seems to be true of knowledge, comfort and population.

posted March 7, 2011